High-fidelity analysis revealing how Rocket Lab's constrained payload capacity affects mission efficiency and customer satisfaction
The Problem
Rocket Lab's Electron is a small-lift launch vehicle that is the second most launched platform for multiple years in a row, yet its advertised 300 kg payload limit at 500 km low-Earth orbit (LEO) raised investor questions about addressable demand and pricing power. In mid-2024 clients asked for proof: Is Electron's limited capacity a real bottleneck or merely an optics issue? The objective was to quantify historical capacity utilization (payload mass / 300 kg) across every Electron mission to date and determine whether utilization patterns signaled unmet demand or comfortable operating headroom.
“I wanted to dig deeper and find out how often Rocket Lab ran into issues with this limitation. For investors, the results would unlock a conclusive take on whether Rocket Lab was struggling to meet customer requirements or if there was ample demand for small satellite launches.”
The Early Findings
I compiled a master log of >50 Electron flights from Rocket Lab's post-mission documentation which provided ample information including launch site, date, orbital altitude (km), orbital inclination, and the payload mass (kg). Payload mass, the most important variable, was occasionally disclosed, but more often than not required some internet investigating.
To close the gaps, I sourced payload mass from the following sources:
Very early into collecting mission data, I recognized something deeply flawed with my approach; the advertised 300kg capacity isn't universal—it's only for 500km…
A flat 300 kg divisor ignores two key rocket-science realities:
Mission Example: February 19, 2024
At 50% higher altitude than the baseline 500km, the actual capacity had to be significantly lower than 300kg.
What is Orbital Inclination?
Orbital inclination is basically the angle that describes which direction your rocket goes around Earth compared to the equator (the imaginary line around Earth's middle). Think of it like jumping off a spinning merry-go-round, jumping in the direction it's spinning gives you free extra speed, but jumping sideways or backwards means you miss out on that boost and have to work harder to go the same distance. That isn't how physics actually works but neither of us are rocket scientists.
Mission details from Rocket Lab's website provided inclination and payload mass, but there was no clear way to calculate the actual efficiency of launches and how much Rocket Lab was “red-lining” their vehicle.
The Key Discovery
After digging through Electron's user documentation, I found the solution: performance curves showing how payload capacity varies with altitude and inclination.
Electron Performance Curves
Key Insight: These curves revealed significant performance drop-offs due to both altitude and inclination. More importantly, this graph was the solution to calculating significantly more accurate payload capacity for any mission parameters.
The Solution
Using the performance curves, I built a Python interpolation model to calculate precise payload capacity for any altitude and inclination combination.
Methodology
- 1Extracted data points from performance curves
- 2Created interpolation arrays in Python
- 3Applied SciPy 2D linear interpolation
- 4Validated against actual mission data
Code Preview
interpolation.pyInteractive Capacity Calculator
Calculate Electron's payload capacity for any mission parameters
Key Results
The interpolation model revealed significant differences between simple capacity assumptions and actual mission requirements.
Capacity Utilization Analysis
Mission Efficiency Insights
Technical Implementation
The analysis pipeline combines data processing, interpolation, and validation to provide comprehensive mission efficiency insights.
Tools & Technologies
Key Features
- ✓Multi-dimensional interpolation across altitude and inclination
- ✓Mission validation against actual payload data
- ✓Capacity utilization analysis and benchmarking
- ✓Customer analytics and success rate tracking
- ✓Launch site utilization patterns
Mission Database Explorer
Browse and analyze Rocket Lab's launch history
It's Business Time
1/21/2018
NROL-199
2/19/2024
Catch Me If You Can
1/31/2024
Conclusion
This analysis provides a data-driven answer to the key investment question: Rocket Lab is efficiently serving strong demand in the small satellite market, not struggling with capacity constraints.